Originally published by Glenn Beck.
Analysis: Trump’s Airstrikes on Iran – Here’s What Happens Next
The world is on edge, waiting to see whether President Trump will militarily strike Iran and fulfill his pledge to Iranian protesters that “help is on the way”—potentially as early as tonight. If that happens, we will embark on one of six paths, each carrying major consequences for the Middle East, global stability, and even daily life in the United States.
Option 1: Claim Success and Return to Status Quo (Unfathomable)
The least likely option—by far—is a return to the dynamic that existed before the latest round of protests and the regime’s murder of possibly tens of thousands of innocent Iranians, carried out in open defiance of Trump’s warnings.
Trump knows his personal credibility is on the line. He has not forgotten that the Iranian regime has repeatedly tried to kill him—and likely still is. Nor has he responded in a way that matches his self- described identity as a “counterpuncher.”
He is also acutely aware of the strategic, history-defining opportunity to trigger a tidal wave of new Abraham Accords signatories—potentially as many as 27, as I wrote for The Blaze in September. The only way this scenario occurs is if someone, or some classified intelligence, convinces him that the costs of Iranian retaliation would exceed what the United States can reasonably absorb. But the regime’s relatively muted response to Trump’s killing of Qassem Soleimani—and its almost nonexistent response to the destruction of three key nuclear sites last June—makes it difficult to believe that a regime weakened so badly by the 12-Day War retains the capacity to intimidate Trump into inaction.
Option 2: A Big, Beautiful, Almost Certain-to-Fail Deal (Highly Unlikely)
Trump says the Iranian regime wants to discuss a deal that would spare it from imminent military action. Yet there has been no meaningful change in the regime’s rhetoric to suggest it is preparing its domestic audience for an agreement that effectively dismantles its nuclear, missile, and terrorism-sponsorship programs.
Iran offering a too-good-to-be-true deal does exist as a remote possibility. It may be the only thing that can save the Islamic Republic’s leaders from disaster. Trump could calculate that it is worth giving Iran a chance to comply, delaying—or even avoiding—the risks of major military action.
But this is still the same regime that has repeatedly tried to kill him. And the only thing Trump appears to hate more than almost being killed is looking weak or being perceived as a “loser.” It is difficult to envision him backing down for the sake of a hypothetical deal without at least striking first, so it is unmistakable that the Iranian regime—not the United States—blinked.
Option 3: Libya Redux—Intentionally or Unintentionally (Moderate Likelihood)
In this scenario, Trump either consciously embarks on an extended, high-intensity aerial campaign—or is dragged into one by mission creep.
President Obama’s intervention in Libya began as an effort to prevent Gaddafi’s forces from entering Benghazi and committing massacres. The stated objective was a ceasefire. The result was a seven-month air campaign that ended with Gaddafi’s overthrow and death.
Iran is not Libya. But it is conceivable that the regime responds to U.S. airstrikes by escalating its repression—killing, injuring, imprisoning, and abusing far more protesters as fear of a popular uprising intensifies. If that happens, how does Trump justify ending U.S. strikes?
What if the regime pauses the violence, releases prisoners, promises to close Evin Prison, and then resumes the killings once U.S. forces draw down again?
Maintaining elevated force levels in the region indefinitely will not be viewed as sustainable. Unless the regime becomes convinced that its survival depends on not murdering protesters—now or in the future—it will repeatedly violate Trump’s demands. Each violation would place enormous pressure on Trump to respond with force rather than appear weak.
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